Data site 538 launches its model this Tuesday to predict the winner of the 2024 presidential election. With less than five months to go before the election, Joe Biden emerges victorious in 529 out of 1,000 simulations, compared to 427 out of 1,000 for The Donald. Trump card. This model takes into account not only the polls, but also the “fundamentals” of the campaign, such as economic conditions, party affiliation for a given state, and the current position of the candidates in the race.
In terms of major voters, the model predicts 276 for the Democratic president, compared to 262 for his competitor. It requires 270 electors to elect the presidency of the United States. “It's not about 'identifying' a winner, but rather about giving you an idea of each candidate's probability of winning,” 538 points out.
In other words, according to the site's model, Joe Biden is not lagging behind Donald Trump. He is tied to his competitor or very slightly ahead.
The 538 is obviously not infallible, as we saw in 2016, but it has improved since then. They represent a more flexible and accurate tool than opinion polls for assessing candidates' chances.
The irony is that 538 is launching its model the day after another controversial release from its founder, Nate Silver, who no longer has any connection to the site. Silver repeated one of his favorite phrases for two or three days, still old.
Silver is convinced that these approval ratings and Biden's age make re-election impossible. However, his old position model gives the Democratic president just as much chance of winning as Trump, if not a little more. Who would believe it?
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