After the French, it was the turn of the British to vote on the 4th of July. Voter fatigue after 14 years in power for the Conservatives could cost outgoing Prime Minister Rishi Sunak dearly.
1. Why elections now?
The past few years have been turbulent in the UK. After the Brexit vote in June 2016 and the resignation of David Cameron, there have been five prime ministers in eight years.
The last general election brought Boris Johnson to power on December 12, 2019.
Rishi Sunak, who took office in October 2022, had to call for a referendum as he became Prime Minister without being elected by the British.
He theoretically called an election until January 2025, and most observers expected him to do so this fall. But Mr. Sunak, on May 22, took everyone by surprise when he announced that the polls would be held on July 4.
According to the outgoing Prime Minister, the timing was right as the economy improved. He said the government has it Two major milestones were achieved
: Lower inflation and growing economy faster than other G7 countries. In the first quarter of 2024, the economy grew by 0.7%, confirming that the country has emerged from recession.
On the contrary, the opposition believes that the economy is stagnating and that the situation is unlikely to improve in a downturn.
2. Who are the main candidates?
- Rishi Sunak, Conservative Party
After 14 years of conservative rule, Prime Minister Rishi Sunak wants another mandate for his party.
Photo: Getty Images / Alicia Abodunde
After the disastrous episode of Liz Truss, who spent less than 50 days in Downing Street, Mr. Sunak became the leader of the country.
The former investment banker and ex-finance minister was appointed party leader (and therefore prime minister) in October 2022 by Conservative MPs.
The son of Indian-origin immigrants, at 44 he is the youngest prime minister in 200 years. A millionaire, the husband of a rich heiress, he is seen as cut off from British reality.
Mr. Sunak succeeded in bringing stability and reining in inflation after the tumultuous years of Boris Johnson, Brexit and the crisis caused by the Covid-19 pandemic.
During the campaign, he promised to strengthen the economy, cut taxes, increase public health spending, and strengthen defense. Mr Sunak has pledged to cap immigration numbers and deport some asylum seekers to Rwanda.
Polls give him one of the lowest popularity ratings of recent British prime ministers. He may even lose a deputy post, which would represent a first for an outgoing head of government.
- Keir Starmer, Labor Party
Labor leader Sir Keir Starmer addresses supporters during a campaign visit to Hucknall Town Football Club on July 2, 2024 in Nottingham, United Kingdom.
Photo: Getty Images / Christopher Furlong
The Labor leader, 61, is a human rights lawyer. Attorney General of the United Kingdom from 2008 to 2013, he was knighted by Queen Elizabeth II in 2014. sir.
Since becoming Labor leader in 2020, he has refocused the party, adopting less extreme positions than those of his predecessor Jeremy Corbyn. Thus, he abandoned plans to re-nationalize public services and increase government spending. He also suppressed representatives associated with extremist and anti-Semitic positions.
His supporters see him as a practical and reliable man who does not hesitate to reach out to the business community to lend more credibility to his plan. His detractors, for their part, criticize his political reversals and his personality, which they consider robotic.
Keir Starmer has tried to give an image of seriousness and determination, particularly on financial and economic issues, which he has already warned against. magic wand
.
Creating a public clean energy agency to strengthen the nation's energy security, improve infrastructure, reduce healthcare wait times, tax private schools and hire thousands of new teachers in public schools, among others.
Reform Party leader Nigel Farage attends a campaign event at Seconds Out gym in Clacton, southeast England on July 3, 2024.
Photo: Getty Images / Paul Ellis
Under the leadership of the new party Reformed UKFar-right Nigel Farage, 60, hopes his eighth bid to be elected to the Westminster parliament will be the perfect one.
Reformed UK The latest in a series of parties Mr Farage has created over the past three decades: The United Kingdom Independence Party (UKIP), The The Brexit Party And now Reformed UKHe trailed the Conservatives in the polls with 17% voting intention.
Eurosceptic, staunch supporter of Brexit, former MEP admirer of Donald Trump. He was inspired by Preston Manning, former leader of the Canadian Reform Party. His influence was The biggest
CBC told him that Mr. Manning replied when asked (new window) played an important role in the development of his campaign.
His ambition to take over the British Conservative Party led to Mr. Inspired by what Manning did.
Rumors are already rife about a possible coalition with the conservatives if the vote falls to the latter.
During the last elections, Reformed UK Did not win any seats, but was an MP for the party defeat of Lee Anderson, an elected official in the Conservative Party.
Mr Farage promises to freeze all immigration non-essential
To withdraw from the European Convention on Human Rights in order to deport asylum seekers. He wants to drastically cut taxes and abandon targets for reducing greenhouse gas emissions.
3. What are the problems?
Voters' main concerns were the cost of living, immigration and the deterioration of the public health service.
The United Kingdom is struggling with high inflation and slow economic growth. Conclusion: The British feel that they have become poorer.
Out of the countryEU had significant consequences. According to many studies, the GDP If Brexit does not happen in the UK it is less than 2% to 3%.
After rising to 11.1% in October 2022, the Conservatives managed to rein in inflation, which fell to 2% in the year to May, but growth remains weak.
Thousands of asylum seekers and economic migrants have crossed the canal in inflatable boats in recent years, prompting criticism that the government has lost control of the borders. The Conservatives' flagship policy is to deport migrants to Rwanda, a program that has already cost 320 million pounds (CA$557 million), although not a single migrant has yet been deported.
Healthcare waiting lists have exploded in recent years. Cases of critically ill patients are forced to wait hours for an ambulance and a hospital bed.
More than 7.5 million operations are pending. According to the Emergency Physicians Association, by 2023, about 250 people will die each week due to long wait times.
Workers in the sector have staged a series of strikes in recent months to demand better wages and working conditions.
4. What to expect?
Barring an unlikely twist, Keir Starmer should be the next British prime minister.
Labor supporters during an election campaign event in Hamilton, Scotland on June 28, 2024.
Photo: Getty Images / Jeff J Mitchell
Opinion polls give Labor a more than 20-point lead over the Conservatives, with 37% voting intention compared to 20%.
Polling Agency YouGov Labor is predicted to win 425 seats and the Conservatives 108. The latter, which is the lowest it has been in 100 years.
According to YouGov, The party could be wiped out in many areas, including London, the North East, North West and Wales.
We are probably facing a very large tidal wave [travailliste] We have ever known in this country
Labor Minister Mel Stride, a pillar of Rishi Sunak's campaign, was endorsed Wednesday. Times Radio.
It is over and we must brace ourselves for the reality and frustration of resistance.
Well-known Conservatives could lose their seats, including Finance Minister Jeremy Hunt, Defense Secretary Grant Shabbs and Commons Leader Benny Mordant.
The Scottish Independence Party (SNP) is also at risk of losing more than half its seats to Labour.
With information from Agence France-Presse, Associated Press and Reuters
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