Despite winning the popular vote by seven million votes in 2020, Joe Biden owes his victory to razor-thin margins in several battleground states.
Donald Trump can hope to win back many of these states because the outgoing president's coalition of voters is collapsing. If progressives and young people threaten to stay home, members of black and Spanish-speaking communities turn to the Republican Party.
A look at the 2020 results
When we analyze the results of the 2020 election, we quickly see that Joe Biden will have a difficult task in obtaining a second term. We already know that Donald Trump enjoyed a clear advantage among white voters aged 50 and over.
White voters made up 69% of the total electorate in 2020. There is no indication of major changes in these statistics for 2024.
- Listen to the American Politics column with Professor Luc Laliberté via QUB :
If Biden wins over Trump, it will largely be because of his performance among nonwhites. They represented four in ten Democratic voters and 0.5 in ten Republican voters.
New deal
Recent opinion polls The New York Times/Siena College reports that Trump has a lead in five of the six swing states. We also see a major shift in black and Spanish-speaking voting.
The Times/Siena polls only confirm a strong trend observed for several months. Recently, a CNBC poll indicated that Biden is favored by only 57% of nonwhites, compared to 71% in 2020.
Why did they choose Trump?
How can we explain that we prefer to turn to a candidate who has been criticized for comments deemed racist? This phenomenon is multifactorial, but I point to at least two main reasons.
One of the most important lies in Democratic strategy. Whether we approach the black community or the Spanish-speaking community, we have used the same methods for a long time, without regard to changes in behavior or priorities within these groups.
The single racist card played from the standpoint of recognizing civil rights is no longer sufficient. Those who do not define themselves solely by the color of their skin migrate more easily to the Republican Party. Democrats are disappointing and offer very few options for these voters.
The other deciding factor is not a matter for minorities: the perception of Joe Biden's economic record. As is the case among white voters, there is a belief that a Trump presidency would be better for our governor.
The challenge in the next five months is big for Joe Biden: retaining the minority votes that remain generally in his favor, while adjusting his approach to plug the leak.
Picture of the week
Screenshot, image generated by artificial intelligence
Using artificial intelligence (hyperfake) to produce a montage of Trump surrounded by members of the black community.
Week number
13
At least thirteen political allies of Donald Trump showed up in New York to support him during his impeachment trial. They included presumptive vice presidential nominees such as Ohio Sen. J.D. Vance, defeated candidate for the Republican nomination Vivek Ramaswamy and North Dakota Gov. Doug Burgum.
Quote of the week
“Has anyone ever seen it before? Silence of the Lambs. With the late Hannibal Lecter? He is a wonderful man. […] Do you remember the last scene? “I'm having a friend over for dinner soon.” […] Congratulations!
Donald Trump made the startling statement during a political rally in Wildwood, New Jersey, last weekend. Sarcasm or not, the fact that a presidential candidate is praising the famous killer played by Anthony Hopkins has shaken a lot of people.
“Total coffee aficionado. Travel buff. Music ninja. Bacon nerd. Beeraholic.”
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