Will Trump's conviction close the door on the White House?

The former president's guilty verdict did not have the massive impact some expected or hoped, but its long-term impact will not be insignificant.

Two weeks after the ruling, we did not notice a significant decline in intentions to vote for Trump. At most, we see a slight shift in favor of Biden.

Some clues

This slowness is understandable. The vast majority of Americans have long-standing views about Trump, and the ruling will do little to change their perceptions. However, polls indicate that a large percentage of independent voters agree that it makes them more likely to oppose Trump.

With his weak approval ratings, Joe Biden benefits from seeing the election as a choice rather than a referendum. His supporters also need a good reason to wake up from their slumber. The ruling reinforces both of these factors.

Increasingly, we hear tales of voters who leaned toward Trump but flatly rejected the idea of ​​voting for a criminal. These testimonials make good advertising clips and can become a snowball.

Why?

This limited public reaction to the ruling can be explained. First, political polarization led to the “calcification” of partisan choices, which became an expression of a quasi-tribal identity rather than a choice between candidates and programs.

This tribalism is reinforced by the information echo chambers where most voters live, especially as the mainstream media strives to balance negative coverage of Trump with increasingly negative coverage of his opponents.

Finally several Swing voters Little or no knowledge and some know nothing about the legal tribulations that Donald Trump is facing. As the ambiguous views of these voters take hold in the coming months, Trump's criminal label will hurt him. Obviously, this is to the extent that Democrats were able to pin it on him and were able to avoid other harmful labels attached to Biden.

Back to basics

Like athletes who must constantly be reminded of the “basics” they have to do, political analysts benefit from returning to the foundations of their discipline to understand the present and anticipate the future.

In the case of US elections, since opinion about the candidates is unlikely to change radically during the campaign, it is necessary to emphasize the contextual elements that will influence the vote.

At the forefront comes the economy. Between now and November, the situation will have a good chance in Biden's favor. Prices are high, but they are stabilizing while employment and wage growth remain strong. That's why, despite pro-Trump polls, the site is popular Thirty-five eight Gives Biden a slight lead in his first 2024 forecast.

We should not underestimate the ruling's impact on the tone of the election campaign between now and November. For Democrats, it's a button they can press at will to throw Donald Trump out of control, which will only hurt him among more moderate voters. If you doubt that, take a look at his public outings since the ruling.