Crime and muse dominate the countryside

At a house in Brixton, south London, Sadiq Khan plays in the pool with a group of teenagers. He listens to songs recorded on site in a small studio. He talks to these young men about a hike he recently took. He describes a visit to the countryside, during which he also attended a community center, which led to his first encounter with a cow. “We would go out and count the animals. He remembers. Cows, goats, horses. You don't see anything in central London.

It is in this kind of setting that Sadiq Khan is most firmly rooted in a young and multicultural version of London. At the end of March, he revealed an envelope of £30 million [35 millions d’euros] Reserved for youth services. The London mayor's composure may seem logical, with opinion polls showing him 20 points ahead of his Conservative rival Susan Hall. [pour l’élection municipale du 2 mai prochain, qui pourrait le reconduire pour un troisième mandat]. Yet, to ask experts who closely follow Khan or municipal elections, strange underlying political trends are at work in the British capital.

A loss of £30 billion

Let's start with the spoiler. Barring disaster, Khan is almost certain to win the May 2 vote. In any case, this is the conclusion of the advice of almost all analysts and pollsters. However, this topic hides vulnerabilities that, in their opinion, will spoil the party on May's victory night.

Before facing the challenges that await him in May, it is important to note that Khan rules a city that has seen major upheavals since he came to power in May 2016. She only enjoyed a honeymoon before the Brexit vote. Capital upside: The referendum led to an exodus of European Union (EU) citizens, a drop in European arrivals and eventual economic losses estimated at £30 billion. [35 milliards d’euros].

These effects did not end when the Covid-19 pandemic dealt a new blow to the city, with residents increasingly telecommuting or taking the opportunity to evacuate. The decline in tourism and business travel left a huge hole in London's finances and forced Khan to seek funding from the government. [conservateur] Hostile.

Recently, the situation in Gaza has put a strain on social relations in London, where protests have been organized. Meanwhile, the cost of living remains a generational challenge, made clearer and clearer by the city's declining baby boom.

Maintain order

All this adds up to the fact that landing a third has always been difficult